HES Come, Gone, Missed

The New York Home Entertainment Show has come and gone… and I missed it (I was tied up at a meeting most of the day Friday and had commitments on Sunday).

I am upset that I missed seeing Internet-only retailers Outlaw Audio, who showed off a new line of speakers, and Aperion Audio, also a speaker vendor. I can ask for review units (my home theater isn’t set up again just yet, but at least it’s not under water any more), but without a dealer channel, open-to-the-public shows like HES are the best venue for normal folks to see and hear their products first hand.

I’m not upset about missing CINEPRO’s room, though. They sent over a card and email before the show touting the ridiculous amount of wattage they planned to deploy their room. Unfortunately, their slogan is "Hear What You’ve Been Missing," and in past years I nearly blew out my hearing for the rest of the show in their room. How can you hear nuances in the music if your ears are bleeding? I suppose it can make sense to have way-over-reference power in a huge theater, but not in a small hotel room.

One other thing I noticed without even attending the show was the dearth of press conferences. Two years ago, nearly an entire day was booked with A-list companies (for example, Sony launched LocationFreeTV there, along with a big SACD push). This year, there was basically nothing.

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50% of HDTV Owners Don’t Have HDTV

The Wall Street Journal has a great article (subscription required) quoting a recent survey showing that 50% of consumers who bought an HDTV set don’t actually have HDTV service. What’s more frightening – and yet entirely believable – is that 25% of HDTV owners think that they do have HDTV when they don’t. Well worth a read.

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Apple TV Knocking off Cable?

Alan Graham proposes that Apple’s Apple TV is aiming at the heart of the cable TV business model:

Is Apple Out to Kill Tivo? by ZDNet‘s Alan Graham — Yeah, I’m calling it. I think Apple (and others) are about to send Cable TV and Tivo a clear message…your time is almost up. The Web 2.0 world is about to kick the door in and escort the old methodology to pasture. And I think it is going to happen pretty quickly. Don’t let the […]

Apple_tvIt’s well argued, and there’s no question that Apple TV is a TiVo competitor, but he’s wrong on the cable front, so his numbers just don’t add up. Alan’s most compelling argument is that cable TV + TiVo is considerably more expensive than simply buying the shows you’re interested in off of iTunes. However, this business model requires consumers to give up their cable TV, and that simply isn’t happening en masse. For starters, cable TV allows you to discover the shows worth buying in the first place. Cable TV allows you to watch live events, like sports, or the Academy Awards, SNL, moon landings, war/terrorism coverage, and murderers driving very slowly. There are plenty of other options for getting news, but sports events have deliberately limited distribution, and generally must be consumed live (watching a game 24 hours later is like reading yesterday’s newspaper. For some it is ‘reference material,’ for others, it’s the video equivalent of what you wrap fish with).

There are other advantages to having access to live (or only slightly time-shifted) content. Speaking as someone who watches a lot of TV via Netflix, the gap between watching something live on cable and watching it a day/month/year later kills the sense of community and continuity – you’re completely out of touch at the water cooler. I admit that being out of touch is not as big a deal as it used to be, given the fractured TV landscape (TiVo, TV-on-DVD, TV-online, TV-on-iTunes) and work environment (I work out of a home office where there is no "water cooler," unless you count Instant Messaging). But at least with TiVo — ReplayTV and XP Media Center in my house — you have the option of watching live. If you turn off cable, you’re at the mercy of whatever content Apple gets and when they get it.

Apple TV will be additive for most people, purchased in addition to cable. Yes, it could replace a TiVo or Netflix subscription (though both have uses that the iTV does not currently address). And perhaps it could replace extended cable packages (in my own household we downgraded to basic cable several years ago and filled in our entertainment gap with TV-on-DVD via Netflix). But to make Alan’s numbers work, you need to drop cable entirely… and that’s just not going to happen.

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CES and MacWorld

I will be attending both CES and MacWorld next week, but as you can imagine when you cram two shows and two cities into one week, I will be extraordinarily pressed for time. Therefore, I will only be taking meetings with clients at CES, though I will be attending most of the press conferences on Sunday. I will also be at Digital Experience Sunday night and Showstoppers on Monday night.

Journalists who would like to contact me for quotes and reactions to the announcements can call me on my VoIP line: 703-788-3788 or shoot me an email at: agreengart (at) currentanalysis [dot] com. Either one will be forwarded to whatever gadget I’m carrying each day.

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It’s Not the Products, It’s the Distribution

Vizio put out a press release a few months ago for two of its 42" LCD HDTVs, touting in the headline, that Vizio is, "ONE OF THE FASTEST GROWING FLAT PANEL BRANDS IN THE U.S."

On the surface of things, that’s not such a bold claim – after all, who the heck are these guys, anyway? They came from nowhere, so of course they’re growing quickly. When you sell nothing one year, and something the next, your growth rate looks fantastic. So, growth by itself is not necessarily a meaningful statistic. Perhaps all the newcomers, slapping a moniker onto an LCD panel sourced from a Chinese factory somewhere, are all growing and doing well at the expense of the established brands.

However, the AP had an article in same timeframe suggesting the opposite: that consumers are buying flat panel TVs, but only from major brands:

Makers of slim TVs are struggling with higher inventories, but the extent of the problem depends on each company’s position in the market: Smaller names are facing a glut of flat-panel screens while most of the top players say they’re playing catch-up to avoid shortages.

So Vizio is bucking a trend here. The new LCD TVs explain why. They’re reasonably feature-rich, and very well priced. But so is a lot of the competition. What’s important here is that the channel itself is a key part (perhaps the key part) of Vizio’s business model. Traditional big box retail (Best Buy, Circuit City) places a premium on brand: getting shelf space is extremely difficult, but once on the shelf you have to compete with Sony and Samsung. This is what the AP is talking about, and it helps explain why Sony, once it got its act together with some decent products, is now back on top of the game. Sony’s brand stands for high quality televisions at a moderate premium; that’s precisely what the Bravia line delivers, and consumers are buying them. (In September, the L.A. Times reported that Sony has regained its position as the U.S.’ top TV manufacturer after falling behind in the late 1990s due to its slow recognition of flat-panel TVs. Sony’s entrance into the LCD market has helped the company increase its share of the total market to 28%.)

So what’s going on with Vizio? The key is distribution: Vizio aimed beyond the big box stores, instead targeting a different, even bigger "big box": warehouse clubs. Costco in particular is a happy home for new discount brands because the warehouse chain mixes in high end brands with relative unknowns; launching your plasma at Costco does not automatically equate your brand with discount merchandise.

Of course, in terms of sheer volume, the biggest game-changer of all may be Wal~Mart, not the warehouse clubs or Best Buy. As prices drop on flat panel TVs — easily the most desired big ticket CE item — more of them end up in the land where there are Always Low Prices. Vendors who can make peace with Wal~Mart’s margin and distribution requirements (and sometimes hyper-competitive house brands) will be able to grow their sales volumes tremendously. They may even be able to build a brand where they have none – but it won’t be a premium brand.

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Is Going Luddite the Answer?

Back in January, 2005, I posted a column asking if the speed of new technology was outstripping consumers’ abilities to absorb its implications. Thanks to the magic of Google, that old column is now getting new comments, one of which spurred me to revisit the issue.

The complaints are numerous: nothing works with anything else, it all gets outdated too quickly, and retail salespeople don’t understand what they’re selling, so there’s no place to turn for advice. This reader’s solution? Withdraw from technology altogether.

The question of when to buy/when to wait is a common one; nobody wants to buy a product that is immediately obsolete. David Pogue’s readers (see the first 20 comments or so) advise finding the right device, and just being happy with it. Aside from being preachy, this presumes that consumers already know exactly what their needs are. It also ignores the fact that computing and consumer electronics tend to plateau – when new devices will just have minor feature updates – but also make major shifts from time to time. If you buy just before a dramatically new device comes out, buyer’s remorse is completely understandable. Ergo, the fear of buyer’s remorse is completely understandable. Generally speaking, everything gets cheaper the longer you wait, but pricing trends are not always constant, either. Knowing when it makes sense to invest in an expensive TV/cameraphone/PC/etc. could genuinely require an understanding of the market, the technology landscape, channel constraints (the world’s greatest cameraphone still needs to go through 3 – 6 months of testing at a carrier before it sees the light of day in this country), and product launch cycles.

You could get some of this information by reading engadget every day, putting together charts of upcoming products, reading reviews… and driving yourself insane. (Actually, some people do this as a hobby/addiction, and for some lucky/insane people, it’s part of the job). But there is no way a typical hourly retail employee can be expected to track and master this much information. (Even if you run into a peculiar breed of retail employee called The Geek Enthusiast, invariably he – it’s always a "he" – has trouble matching the right gadget/technology to your specific needs. And he’ll soon be off to a career in product management anyway, so the next time you return he’ll be gone.)

In other industries – construction, healthcare, real estate – we hire professionals to overcome design and choice complexity. Of course, experts demand payment for their expertise, and the dollar amounts and margins on most consumer electronics simply do not lend themselves to a workable business model. I cannot imagine a sustainable business where consumers pay $250 in consulting fees to help them choose a $250 device. Aggregated opinions on the web (such as Amazon.com reviews) are a big help, but are not personalized, cannot ensure everything works well together, can’t help you learn how to use your new technology, and there’s a lot of chaff to sort through to get to the wheat.

Where the total dollar amounts are higher, a professional services model can work. The custom home theater installation market is probably the only consumer electronics area where many of these issues are addressed – for a price. But the majority of consumers buy by brand name (Bose, Apple, Kodak, and Sony all benefit from long brand associations), buy based on simplicity rather than an extended understanding of potential uses (Apple’s iPod fits this category nicely), or hold off buying altogether until a category leader has been established (TiVo, iPod).

But going full-on Luddite is not necessarily practical – or even desirable – for most people. For example, in my day job I focus on mobile devices. The data on mobile phones is clear: the things are way too hard to use. The data is also clear: many people consider their cell phones indispensable. One survey declared them the winner of the technology people most love to hate. So people sort of make their peace with technology and use it for a limited set of functions that they can mentally wrap their heads around. They don’t know how to silence the phone, so it rings when it shouldn’t. They don’t know how to lock/unlock the phone (because no manufacturer will install a simple lock/unlock switch as found on every iPod) so it calls their mother by itself. But they won’t leave the house without it.

Similarly, consumers may not have a complete grasp of HDTV and even less understanding of whether to choose plasma, LCD, DLP, an LCOS variant, or wait for laser or SED, but at some point, it’s football season…

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CEDIA Highlights, Part II

In last month’s CEDIA Highlights post, I noted two projectors that broke through the clutter (and there was a lot of clutter: my in box has dozens and dozens of press releases). There was a third announcement that caught my eye, and, surprisingly, it, too, was projector-related.

THX is now certifying home projectors.Thx_and_tex_1

On the surface, this does not seem surprising – THX certifies just about everything. In fact, don’t they already have a certification program for displays? It certainly seems like they did. (Actually, they did – but only as part of their commercial theater certification program.) THX is starting out with ludicrously expensive Runco models, but the program should trickle down to more affordable home projectors, rear projection televisions, and flat panel displays.

Not everyone loves THX. First of all, it’s a licensing program. It costs money to get the logo, but doesn’t offer anything concrete in exchange; theoretically, if your product meets all of THX’s specifications, you could be THX-certifiable without actually being THX-certified and pass the savings along to your customers. A bigger issue is that THX’s specifications are based on a specific philosophy. On the audio side, the philosophy includes notions of how a speaker should be constructed (small satellites, big subwoofers, and a specific crossover type and crossover frequency), how soundtracks mixed for commercial theaters should be adapted for the home environment, and how rear speakers should be integrated into a system. Reasonable people at, say, a speaker manufacturer, could disagree on an aspect of the technical approach that THX certification demands, but because the THX logo is respected in the market, they may lose business by building things their way instead of THX’s methodology.

THX Certified Display testing includes the following:

  • Front of Screen (FOS) Testing
    • Luminance
    • Contrast
    • Color Gamut
    • Gamma
    • Uniformity
    • Max Resolution
  • Video Signal Processing Testing
    • Scaling
    • Deinterlacing
    • Motion/Video Conversion

I am 100% confident that there will be controversy over THX’s video specifications. I couldn’t tell you what specifically will cause hand wringing – or whether it will be a specification of omission: THX’s video certification program was been rightly villified several years back for certifying terrible letterbox transfers; the specs simply didn’t go far enough in that case.

Still, I believe that, on balance, THX is an incredibly positive force for home theater audio and video reproduction. If you assemble a THX-approved system, even from different vendors, you know that the individual products will perform to a certain set of specifications, and that they were designed to complement each other. I also appreciate the notion of a certification program in the first place. Sure, Vendor X has a good reputation, and Vendor Y has a powerful brand. But THX drives the entire industry, for better or worse, towards a unified A/V philosophy. Aside from buying every component in your system from a single brand — as if that were even possible (outside of Sony and Samsung) — THX assures a level of uniformity of purpose and performance in home theater products. I like that.

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CEDIA Highlights, Part I

To all the PR people trying to set up meetings with me at CEDIA this weekend: I’m not there. I just got back from CTIA before heading out again early next week, and CEDIA just didn’t make it onto the schedule this year.

Of course, I’m following the show remotely. So far, only a couple of announcements have really broken through the clutter, and they’re two projectors that offer clear value propositions:

  • Vplvw50_close_med_1 Sony’s 1080p VPL-VW50 SXRD front projector, which brings essentially the same technology from the $25,000 Qualia line (that then showed up in the $10,000 VPL-VW100 front projector, and then again in a line of Bravia rear projection TVs) down to $5,000. In the U.S., where big screen TVs have long been available (along with the floor space to put them) mid-priced projectors often sell well. Overseas, where a projector is replacing a big screen TV, not supplementing it, budget projectors tend to do better. Regardless, $3,000 – $5,000 is a sweet spot for pricing, and now performance follows. Sony can claim it uses unique technology for superior image quality, which fits nicely with its brand history (and just might be true. I personally prefer the slightly smoother picture from SXRD/D-ILA technologies compared to DLP or LCD).
  • Sc1011 At the opposite end of the price spectrum, if you’ve got hundreds of thousands of dollars to spend on a Bentley, you may want to consider a Runco Signature Cinema SC-1 instead (starting price: $250K. More if you want the 2.35:1 version). And a 40 foot screen for your home theater. While you might think there is no market for such ridiculously expensive toys, think again: when I last spoke to TI, they admitted that a fair number of professional DLP products aimed at commercial theaters end up in the homes of the super-wealthy film enthusiast. Or at least the super-wealthy conspicuous consumer who needs the absolute best of everything.

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Sonos Tries to Market “The Experience”

Sonos has built a flash version of its music controller for online demos. It’s neat, and was probably worth the investment it took to build because the UI (depicted below) is a key part of the Sonos value proposition.

Sonos_ui_2However, one of the more interesting pieces of feedback I received from my Sonos review was from people who wanted to know why Sonos was worth a price premium over simply sticking an iPod and a speaker dock in each room.

There are good answers to that question, but the experience is different, and that doesn’t come across in an answer – or a demo of the UI. The controller isn’t the experience. Having easily controlled music throughout your home is the experience, and, that may take an actual physical demonstration at someone’s home to generate the a-ha! moment Sonos needs.

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What it takes to launch a new media format

JupiterKagan’s Michael Gartenberg has a great post about the three elements needed to successfully launch a new consumer media format. He concludes that neither HD-DVD or Blu-Ray measures up.

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Full disclosure: I created the diagram that Michael uses to illustrate his point back when I was an analyst at what was then called JupiterResearch and he was my Research Director; it was for a report on next generation audio formats.

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