Woot.com Sells $1.3 million in TVs over 22 Hours

Woot.com has built on its relationship with InFocus and yesterday the one-item-per-day online outlet store flexed the power of its unique retail model: it sold out an allotment of 450 new (not refurbished) 61" ultrathin (6.85" deep) DLP RPTVs over 22 hours for $3000 each.  InFocus sweetened the deal further with a $500 rebate.  This TV typically cost $5,000 – $8,000, and includes 2 ATSC tuners, an NTSC tuner, a Windows CE-based web browser, and all the trimmings. Infocus_61md10_for_web Infocus_61md10_for_web2

With woot’s flat $5 shipping, this leads to some remarkable statistics:

Item Quantity: 450
Item Price: $2,999.99
Total Sold: $1,349,995.50
Last Order time: 10:05 PM Central Time (new items are offered at midnight, Central Time, so that means the entire sale took 22 hours)
Order Pace: a $3,000 TV sold every 2 minutes, 55 seconds, or $61,094.47 an hour.
Shipping Cost: $5
Shipping Total: $2,250
TV Weight (w/ stand): 189.5
Total Weight: 85,275 lbs
Rebate by Infocus: $500
Infocus Payout: $225,000

Obviously, Woot will be paying a bit more than $2 grand to ship 85,275 lbs. of merchandise direct to customers’ homes. 

In marked contrast to most Woot items, the order pace started slow – very few items moved in the first hour, as customers digested the information about the set and asked spouses for permission.  If you follow the flow of conversation in Woot’s forum, you find a clear pattern: initially, woot regulars whined about the high cost of the item (some Woot items sell for as little as $10 or $20).  Then, as word got out about the deal, a flurry of new customers posted their excitement and celebrating their purchasing savvy (or impending divorce due to differing monetary priorities — in one case, if the poster is to be believed, marriage counseling would be a far better use of his $3,000 than an HDTV). Woot appears to be following the Costco model and broadening its customer base by offering higher end products to be found in what was always designed to be a bit of a treasure hunt.

The key question other retailers must ask is how this will affect pricing going forward.  Will consumers tune out Woots as one-time sales – almost like a lottery win – or will this drive down pricing as customers expect to find "finds" going forward?

-avi

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Coping with the Death of Audio

At a macro level, it’s pretty clear that audio component sales are dropping, while displays – flat panel and DLP rear projection sets in particular – are consuming the bulk of consumer outlays.  So what is a company that specializes in selling high end audio components to do?  Audio Advisor started out as a catalog retailer of high end audio toys (they’re now on the Internet as well), and each catalog used to feature pages after page of amps, preamps, integrated amps, high end CD players, extremely expensive record players for analog lovers, and digital audio doodads that supposedly improved CD audio quality for digital lovers.  At the other end of the catalog retailing price range, Crutchfield used to sell dozens of entry level and mid-priced receivers and DVD players. 

With sales of these products down, these retailers could try to compete for video dollars and sell plasmas and LCD panels, but going up against big box retailers and PC-based online outlets (such as Dell.com) is a recipe for suicide – without incredible volume, margins on displays can actually be negative.

Crutchfield has instead decided to focus on the auto side of its business.  Auto sound has remained strong, and auto displays – for movies or GPS navigation – have absolutely exploded.  While local stores still have an advantage in terms of installation, Crutchfield’s online store benefits from selection tools and advice wizards that simplify the process of figuring out what you can actually use in your car.

AudioAdvisor never sold auto sound products, so that route would be a significant departure.  Instead, the company is turning to furniture and cables.  Cables are high margin products that have always been featured in the catalog, but now more than a quarter of the catalog features at least one interconnect, speaker cable, or replacement power cable as part of the layout.  The other new gear category is furniture.  AudioAdvisor has a 16 full pages (out of 76) dedicated entirely to furniture – mostly stands for the video displays its customers are buying elsewhere instead of upgrading that preamp.

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When the walls are open, Microsoft’s moving in

I was at Microsoft’s Preview Day today in New York, which for me was largely about mobile devices (see my bio). One thing that came across clearly, however, was the centrality of Windows XP Media Center (XP MCE) to Microsoft’s overall consumer plans.  This reminded me of an interesting case study in Digital Connect about a custom installer, Silicon East, which has a somewhat unique specialty putting systems into new construction. That’s nothing new – when the walls are open, it’s the best time to put in home networking gear, and the walls are never more open than during new construction. But rather than get Mr. New Homeowner to buy a typical custom installation A/V system, Silicon East is pushing PC’s with XP MCE. 

This should be a pretty tough sell, as the notion of using a PC as a media hub still hasn’t hit mass adoption yet – at best, builders are content to wire up a house for broadband and create a media nook where a plasma TV can be hung on the wall.  Silicon East gets around this by selling the builder first.  They actually go out to builders and hook their offices up with MCE boxes.  The latest version of XP MCE is nearly as slick as a TiVo (and far more versatile – I’m typing this column on one); once the builders are hooked, they demonstrate it to potential customers in the model homes.

Silicon East gives up some margin figures (7% on hardware, 30% on service), and notes that they turn down business that’s likely to be unprofitable (any time the customer uses the term, "Dell"). The initial foray is almost a loss leader – once the customer is hooked, there are follow on opportunities for display sales, system extensions, and all kinds of home automation.

-avi

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Yes, it was a live demo… also a misleading one

Back in February I wrote about Microsoft’s Lightspeed IPTV demo at CES and linked to BusinessWeek’s skeptical coverage.  Well, the magazine was just biding its time and this week they completely skewer the initiative (subscription required), highlighting the endless delays in commercializing it.  It seems the impressive demo I saw at CES was real.  The problem is that the technology doesn’t work for millions of users at once, which is kind of important for the operators who want to broadly deploy it.  Live and learn.

Still, TV over IP seems somewhat inevitable. Japan and Korea have DSL service 10x faster than what U.S. operators provide and at lower prices. I’d think that deploying dramatically faster DSL would both solve many of the technical problems with IPTV and at the same time provide the service justification for consumers to upgrade to broadband (or even switch from cable modems).

-avi

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Retail Goes Custom

There’s a new big box retail mini-chain (5 stores) here in Northern NJ, Electronics Expo, and it is unlike any other big box retail store I have seen. The CEDIA custom installation market is growing at double digit rates, and Electronics Expo is essentially a gigantic showroom for flat panel displays, front projectors, and more flat panel displays. The highlight of the store is the second level – a walkthrough of a ‘model home’ with flat panel displays absolutely everywhere. Extremely high end receivers – though no separates – are arrayed in two of the rooms on the main floor, but the speaker selection is paltry and tops out at mid-tier brands (Polk’s LSi line and Monitor Audio). There is a whole house audio system on display (Yamaha’s MusiCAST), a few MP3 players out front, and small counters for digital cameras and camcorders near the entrance.

Some observations:

  • The first page in Electronics Expo’s brochure highlights the availability of CEDIA custom installation for its products. Given the product selection and pricing, installation services should be a significant profit driver for Electronics Expo.
  • Consumers are spending money on video, not audio, and that is the focus on the sales floor: high end video. The selection is not what a videophile would consider high end, but close.
  • It’s clear you can’t compete with Best Buy, Circuit City, Target, or Costco on cameras, computers, DVDs, video game systems, and even most TV categories.
  • Pricing is almost ludicrously high; nearly everything was MSRP, and the sale prices were not competitive with sale prices elsewhere or online.
  • The store’s square footage is equivalent to a small Circuit City. The level of sales help was equivalent, too — nowhere near as knowledgeable as at many small specialty retailers.

Bottom line: Electronics Expo has a nice showroom format, which could seriously hurt specialty retailers, forcing those without significant high end clientele (those who demand truly high end systems, not just "better than at Best Buy") to become full time custom installers, and drop their retail storefronts. But Electronics Expo is counting on the continued desirability – and premium pricing – of flat panel displays. Given the poor sales help and high fixed costs for the big box showroom format, if prices on high end panels drop, Electronics Expo is going to have to find something else to sell. I have long advocated that Best Buy dedicate more floor space to lifestyle demonstrations, custom installation, and front projection; if it does so, it could bury Electronics Expo on price.

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When Manufacturers Don’t Manufacture, What Are They?

I wrote earlier about Outlaw’s new 990 audio processor, and was left with a few questions. They’ve since posted a FAQ that not only answers my questions, but also provides rare public insight into industry practices for cross-company parts sharing. Audio is a lot like the automobile industry – creating a platform is enormously expensive, and companies often share development to keep costs down. Sure, there are a few boutiques that create everything themselves from scratch, but custom efforts are enormously expensive, limiting the potential market size.

Outlaw uses the three different models shown below for product development, and so do all the other specialty brands to one degree or another, regardless of their distribution model. The selection of which development path to use is determined by the specific product, its cost, complexity and its anticipated volume. Going back to our first offering, the Model 750 amplifier, we have never hidden our relationships with some of the industry’s leading manufacturers. Remember that out process is not unique, and only a few of the "major" brands actually design and manufacture their own processors from the ground up. We know of no company in the "internet only" market that totally designs and builds all of their processors on their own.

The FAQ continues to describe which of its products were designed, manufactured, licensed out, or licensed in. Outlaw exclusively sells direct online; I don’t know if that completely explains their openness. But they are hardly alone, and got me thinking of some other common business models:

  • Brand A designs, someone else manufactures for Brand A. Very few – if any – of today’s manufacturers actually manufacture everything they sell. In some cases, a company will manufacture one type of product, but not others.  For example, Sony manufacturers most of its TV sets, but practically none of its headphones.
  • Brand A designs and then its design is "sublet" to Brand B to defray costs. Brand B rebadges the design with mostly cosmetic changes and sells it as its own. This has long been the way most vendors obtain their universal remote controls, but it happens in high end audio whenever a vendor specializes in one component but needs to offer retailers a complete product line to get distribution.  For example, Lexicon has been rebadging Bryston amplifiers for years.
  • Brand A designs the core chassis (in the case of a processor or receiver), core technology (in the case of MP3 players and digital cameras) or driver/crossover (in the case of speakers), and Brand B rebadges it with changes. These changes can be cosmetic, substantive, or both.  For example, most MP3 players – including the iPod – are based on chips from PortalPlayer. Companies can use PortalPlayer’s software (technically "firmware," in this case), use just some of it, or write their own from scratch.
  • Brand A and Brand B share development costs on the core technologies, then customize the surrounding technologies for differentiation. Examples here include Sony and Samsung’s jointly owned LCD fabrication plants; LG and Philips have joint ventures in plasma TV manufacturing. But in each case, the video processing, scaling, types of inputs, and case design are all different, leading to different performance characteristics and pricing.

-avi

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New/Old Audio Technologies New Again: Part Two

Outlaw just announced a new pre/pro (the surround sound processing portion of a receiver without the amplifier section), the model 990, and its a doozy: a high end version of the company’s 950 for only $1099. More surprising than the product itself is Outlaw’s secrecy about it – while some analysts (including yours truly) were briefed on this last year, this is the first public indication the company has made that they were even working on a new pre/pro, and it should be shipping within the next month or two. The change in strategy was due to the flack the company took during the oft-delayed development of the 950. Not surprisingly, there has been some grumbling on the forums that not enough notice was given on the 990… damned if you do, damned if you don’t. This was the right decision though – publicly slipping announced shipping dates damaged the company’s reputation and angered the customer base, while surprising the market only means a few lost sales for customers who bought something else in the meantime.

The standout feature most will notice are fully balanced outputs, to go with a future Outlaw amplifier with balanced inputs. Most people assume that balanced outputs – found on professional and some audiophile gear – are superior to regular RCA jacks. Thus, from a marketing perspective, the 990 has something to crow about.  However, the reason why balanced inputs/outputs appear on professional gear is not because it adds a magical element to the sound, but because it allows for very long cable runs without signal degredation.  In most home environments, this is irrelevant, and balanced signals at the very least add cost (the cables are more expensive) and may actually have a slight negative impact on the sound.

Even discounting the balanced outputs, the 990 looks like a bargain compared to most pre/pros, which start in the $1500 range and quickly climb from there. Component quality is higher than the 950, though this may be overkill: I was given a chance to review a 950, and found its noise floor to be extremely low and its sound quality to be transparent. The 990 offers tremendous flexibility for bass management for all sources, and has stereo subwoofer outputs. All the usual surround modes are included, along with Dolby Headphone (and a headphone jack). All analog video can be converted to component, and DVI switching is included. The 990’s software is upgradeable, and, as an Internet-only retailer, this is something Outlaw is likely to take advantage of down the road. However, there are a few open questions:

  • There’s no word on automatic room callibration, though some sort of setup routine is included. [Update: the 990 provides automatic setup of speaker levels and delay times using an included microphone.  Automatic room callibration is not available, but could be provided as a software upgrade in the future.]
  • The 950 has an audio delay and click problem when switching inputs; hopefully that issue has been resolved in the 990.
  • Presumably, the 990 is not hardware upgradable, which means that HDMI switching can’t be added down the road. This is not so much a technical problem – for most setups, DVI switching is practically the same thing – but a marketing issue. HDMI switching would eliminate the additional cable clutter and expense of carrying digital audio signals to and from certain components. [Update: The 990 is not hardware upgradable. The company’s explanation why HDMI switching was not included is not terribly convincing.]

We will likely get a 990 in for a full review. My review of Outlaw’s LFM-1 subwoofers can be found here (links to JupiterReasearch’s Home Theater Watch) and my review of Outlaw’s 7700 amplifier is here (links to Secrets of Home Theater).

-avi

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New Online Retail/Marketing/Research Channel: Woot.com

At 1 AM EST every night? morning? something extraordinary is happening to online retail. Woot.com is an online outlet for tech overstocks and refurbs, but its unique business model is opening up some intriguing possibilities for building an installed base for a certain breed of product. The store offers one item per night at dramatically discounted prices – popular items sell out fast, and aren’t replenished.  A new item goes on sale the next night. The item descriptions are cheeky, the online forum is relatively uncensored, and the audience is extremely geeky (and proud of it.  Though the site definitely attracts a few too many teenagers with time on their hands).

Some items are mundane – such as coffee makers and toys — or just ordinary — such as iPods and computer speakers. But once a week or so the site offers technology about a half generation behind, seeking an audience. This may have started out as a pure overstock play, with woot buying what didn’t sell to early adopters, but it is now evolving into companies approaching woot with products they still hope may catch fire.  The best example is Omnifi streaming audio players from Rockford Fosgate: one night the site offered 1,000 home/car bundles for $199, another night just the home unit for $79. In both cases company reps were in the online forum to answer questions, guage interest, and get feedback.

Tonight’s woot is a refurbished InFocus ScreenPlay 4800 DLP home theater front projector. For $499. The projector sells new for $1,200, but the percentage and magnitude of savings isn’t as interesting as the price point itself: at $499, front projection may be used by completely different buyers or for new applications.  The online forum provides a limited method of obtaining feedback on who/how the product will be used, but feedback mechanisms could be expanded.  If so, how long will it be before vendors sell a few hundred units of new products at cost on woot simply as a method of market research?

-avi

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iPod Rips Through “Pretty Face Syndrome”

BusinessWeek has an article in this week’s issue titled, "The Crisp, Clear Sound of Rising Profits" [registration req’d] on B&O’s recent uptick in business. After years of stagnation, the company is rolling out dozens of new initiatives in high end audio systems for exclusive automobiles, yachts, and penthouse suites at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas.

That’s all well and good, but those are relatively small markets with high investment required to enter.  In other words, they’re brand-building activities, not core products. Bose and Harman are exceptions: they make real money in their auto divisions because they’ve built the business over the past decade(s) across multiple auto product lines.  High end brands like McIntosh and Linn who are offering systems in cars as expensive options (or for cars with limited production runs) is at best a break-even marketing expense. Linn has even admitted as much.

Product innovation is given some ink: a $1,600 PVR is on the way, and the company’s BeoLab 5 speakers have been critically well received (I haven’t auditioned them) – no word on sales figures, though. The problem here is simple: B&O products have tended to be high priced art pieces.  There’s nothing wrong with selling art, except when they’re supposed to make music, too. The expensive B&O products I’ve heard have sounded terrible. The new CEO admits as much, calling it "a gap between our image and our performance… the ‘pretty-face syndrome.’"

It will take more than a new product or two to change my impression (and the company’s home theater loudspeakers appear to be based on older B&O designs).  What’s worse is that the high end of audio is moving away from spending tens of thousands of dollars on top flight design to spending hundreds of dollars on top flight design …from Apple. Bose had the right idea when it put together a $300 iPod speaker dock — as long as they understand that it obviates the need for any of their standalone products. Home theater systems are safe, for now, because their purpose is video, not music. While B&O offers speakers that can be sold for home theater use, it doesn’t sell packaged home theater systems in the $2,000 – $3,000 range like Bose does.  Custom installers selling higher priced gear are looking for audiophile performance or invisible in-wall options — not B&O style art pieces. 

So where are the profits coming from?  Clues come later in the article: lower expenses. Roughly a third of the company’s employees were laid off, and dozens of stores were closed. The company is planning to moved some production out of Denmark and over to Eastern Europe.

That’s good operations management, but not a strategy.  I seriously question B&O’s product development priorities.  I would expect them to capitalize on what’s left of the brand and attack Bose in mid-priced packaged systems, move into custom installation in a big way, or both. Why why why an overpriced PVR?  It had better absolutely set the world on fire because it’s competing amongst a sea of struggling PVR vendors, not to mention Microsoft and cable operators. In the meantime, the iPod is melting away the design-oriented audio business.

-avi

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Consolidation in the Display Business

The New York Times today reports (free reg. req’d) two separate deals: Fujitsu is selling its LCD display manufacturing to LCD leader Sharp, and Matushita (known in the US as "Panasonic") is hooking up with Hitachi to jointly manufacture plasma displays.  Bottom line here: prices are dropping too fast to go it alone if you aren’t dominating the field.

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