CES and MacWorld

I will be attending both CES and MacWorld next week, but as you can imagine when you cram two shows and two cities into one week, I will be extraordinarily pressed for time. Therefore, I will only be taking meetings with clients at CES, though I will be attending most of the press conferences on Sunday. I will also be at Digital Experience Sunday night and Showstoppers on Monday night.

Journalists who would like to contact me for quotes and reactions to the announcements can call me on my VoIP line: 703-788-3788 or shoot me an email at: agreengart (at) currentanalysis [dot] com. Either one will be forwarded to whatever gadget I’m carrying each day.

-avi

CES and MacWorld Read More

LIVEDigitally Posts Avi’s Holiday Gift Guide

Yes, it’s been a long time since the last post here at Home Theater View, but that’s not because I haven’t been writing. My Last Minute Non-Obvious Holiday Gift Guide has just been posted over at LIVEDigitally.

As I write this, there is only one day left to Chanukah and a couple of shopping days before Christmas. I figure there’s no need for a last minute gift list with obvious entries. Let’s face it, if you didn’t already get an HDTV or MP3 player for your home theater and gadget-loving giftees, you don’t need me to tell you that you could get them a plasma or an iPod. So here is the:

Non-Obvious Last Minute 2006 Holiday Gadget Gift Guide

Happy Holidays,

-avi

LIVEDigitally Posts Avi’s Holiday Gift Guide Read More

It’s Not the Products, It’s the Distribution

Vizio put out a press release a few months ago for two of its 42" LCD HDTVs, touting in the headline, that Vizio is, "ONE OF THE FASTEST GROWING FLAT PANEL BRANDS IN THE U.S."

On the surface of things, that’s not such a bold claim – after all, who the heck are these guys, anyway? They came from nowhere, so of course they’re growing quickly. When you sell nothing one year, and something the next, your growth rate looks fantastic. So, growth by itself is not necessarily a meaningful statistic. Perhaps all the newcomers, slapping a moniker onto an LCD panel sourced from a Chinese factory somewhere, are all growing and doing well at the expense of the established brands.

However, the AP had an article in same timeframe suggesting the opposite: that consumers are buying flat panel TVs, but only from major brands:

Makers of slim TVs are struggling with higher inventories, but the extent of the problem depends on each company’s position in the market: Smaller names are facing a glut of flat-panel screens while most of the top players say they’re playing catch-up to avoid shortages.

So Vizio is bucking a trend here. The new LCD TVs explain why. They’re reasonably feature-rich, and very well priced. But so is a lot of the competition. What’s important here is that the channel itself is a key part (perhaps the key part) of Vizio’s business model. Traditional big box retail (Best Buy, Circuit City) places a premium on brand: getting shelf space is extremely difficult, but once on the shelf you have to compete with Sony and Samsung. This is what the AP is talking about, and it helps explain why Sony, once it got its act together with some decent products, is now back on top of the game. Sony’s brand stands for high quality televisions at a moderate premium; that’s precisely what the Bravia line delivers, and consumers are buying them. (In September, the L.A. Times reported that Sony has regained its position as the U.S.’ top TV manufacturer after falling behind in the late 1990s due to its slow recognition of flat-panel TVs. Sony’s entrance into the LCD market has helped the company increase its share of the total market to 28%.)

So what’s going on with Vizio? The key is distribution: Vizio aimed beyond the big box stores, instead targeting a different, even bigger "big box": warehouse clubs. Costco in particular is a happy home for new discount brands because the warehouse chain mixes in high end brands with relative unknowns; launching your plasma at Costco does not automatically equate your brand with discount merchandise.

Of course, in terms of sheer volume, the biggest game-changer of all may be Wal~Mart, not the warehouse clubs or Best Buy. As prices drop on flat panel TVs — easily the most desired big ticket CE item — more of them end up in the land where there are Always Low Prices. Vendors who can make peace with Wal~Mart’s margin and distribution requirements (and sometimes hyper-competitive house brands) will be able to grow their sales volumes tremendously. They may even be able to build a brand where they have none – but it won’t be a premium brand.

-avi

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Try It and You Won’t Go Back. (Or will you?)

Jeremy Toeman over at LiveDigitally talks about the "living room effect" that can convince even the most hardened skeptic to make the move to HDTV.

I’m a big proponent of experiencing products in order to understand their impact, but there are certain things that even a demo can’t cure. I find this uniquely interesting on a personal level because the "living room effect" hasn’t proven to be true here, at casa HomeTheaterView. I’ve had a 53" LCOS HDTV for 2+ years, Jvc_hdtv but reception is over the air (when we get it – it can be flaky), and our ReplayTV is hooked up to the analog cable feed. I refuse to watch SDTV when HDTV is available for the reasons Jeremy cites, but my wife is equally adamant that she will not watch content live with commercials. HDTV encompasses more than one improvement to TV watching — dramatically higher resolution, digital surround sound, and a widescreen aspect ratio. But my wife prizes one feature above that, her time, and would prefer to watch fuzzy contents and save 18 minutes an hour rather than bask in the glory that is HD.

My wife may be somewhat unique, but there are plenty of TV-loving consumers who have priorities that preclude HDTV at this time. HDTV up front costs are high; HDTV has come way down in price, but sets are still fairly expensive. Ongoing costs of HDTV can be considerably higher than analog, depending on the technology used to recieve the signal. Cable HDTV requires upgrading to a digital package and renting a set top box; some cable and satellite providers charge separately for HDTV channels. And a lot of content – the vast majority of cable channels – is unavailable in HD, so if that’s what you watch, buying an HDTV won’t make things better (and in some cases, it’ll look worse).

A TiVo series 3 may be in my future. I have asked TiVo for a unit to review here; hopefully one will show up soon, and my wife and I can watch TV together again.

-avi

Try It and You Won’t Go Back. (Or will you?) Read More

Is Going Luddite the Answer?

Back in January, 2005, I posted a column asking if the speed of new technology was outstripping consumers’ abilities to absorb its implications. Thanks to the magic of Google, that old column is now getting new comments, one of which spurred me to revisit the issue.

The complaints are numerous: nothing works with anything else, it all gets outdated too quickly, and retail salespeople don’t understand what they’re selling, so there’s no place to turn for advice. This reader’s solution? Withdraw from technology altogether.

The question of when to buy/when to wait is a common one; nobody wants to buy a product that is immediately obsolete. David Pogue’s readers (see the first 20 comments or so) advise finding the right device, and just being happy with it. Aside from being preachy, this presumes that consumers already know exactly what their needs are. It also ignores the fact that computing and consumer electronics tend to plateau – when new devices will just have minor feature updates – but also make major shifts from time to time. If you buy just before a dramatically new device comes out, buyer’s remorse is completely understandable. Ergo, the fear of buyer’s remorse is completely understandable. Generally speaking, everything gets cheaper the longer you wait, but pricing trends are not always constant, either. Knowing when it makes sense to invest in an expensive TV/cameraphone/PC/etc. could genuinely require an understanding of the market, the technology landscape, channel constraints (the world’s greatest cameraphone still needs to go through 3 – 6 months of testing at a carrier before it sees the light of day in this country), and product launch cycles.

You could get some of this information by reading engadget every day, putting together charts of upcoming products, reading reviews… and driving yourself insane. (Actually, some people do this as a hobby/addiction, and for some lucky/insane people, it’s part of the job). But there is no way a typical hourly retail employee can be expected to track and master this much information. (Even if you run into a peculiar breed of retail employee called The Geek Enthusiast, invariably he – it’s always a "he" – has trouble matching the right gadget/technology to your specific needs. And he’ll soon be off to a career in product management anyway, so the next time you return he’ll be gone.)

In other industries – construction, healthcare, real estate – we hire professionals to overcome design and choice complexity. Of course, experts demand payment for their expertise, and the dollar amounts and margins on most consumer electronics simply do not lend themselves to a workable business model. I cannot imagine a sustainable business where consumers pay $250 in consulting fees to help them choose a $250 device. Aggregated opinions on the web (such as Amazon.com reviews) are a big help, but are not personalized, cannot ensure everything works well together, can’t help you learn how to use your new technology, and there’s a lot of chaff to sort through to get to the wheat.

Where the total dollar amounts are higher, a professional services model can work. The custom home theater installation market is probably the only consumer electronics area where many of these issues are addressed – for a price. But the majority of consumers buy by brand name (Bose, Apple, Kodak, and Sony all benefit from long brand associations), buy based on simplicity rather than an extended understanding of potential uses (Apple’s iPod fits this category nicely), or hold off buying altogether until a category leader has been established (TiVo, iPod).

But going full-on Luddite is not necessarily practical – or even desirable – for most people. For example, in my day job I focus on mobile devices. The data on mobile phones is clear: the things are way too hard to use. The data is also clear: many people consider their cell phones indispensable. One survey declared them the winner of the technology people most love to hate. So people sort of make their peace with technology and use it for a limited set of functions that they can mentally wrap their heads around. They don’t know how to silence the phone, so it rings when it shouldn’t. They don’t know how to lock/unlock the phone (because no manufacturer will install a simple lock/unlock switch as found on every iPod) so it calls their mother by itself. But they won’t leave the house without it.

Similarly, consumers may not have a complete grasp of HDTV and even less understanding of whether to choose plasma, LCD, DLP, an LCOS variant, or wait for laser or SED, but at some point, it’s football season…

-avi

Is Going Luddite the Answer? Read More

CEDIA Highlights, Part II

In last month’s CEDIA Highlights post, I noted two projectors that broke through the clutter (and there was a lot of clutter: my in box has dozens and dozens of press releases). There was a third announcement that caught my eye, and, surprisingly, it, too, was projector-related.

THX is now certifying home projectors.Thx_and_tex_1

On the surface, this does not seem surprising – THX certifies just about everything. In fact, don’t they already have a certification program for displays? It certainly seems like they did. (Actually, they did – but only as part of their commercial theater certification program.) THX is starting out with ludicrously expensive Runco models, but the program should trickle down to more affordable home projectors, rear projection televisions, and flat panel displays.

Not everyone loves THX. First of all, it’s a licensing program. It costs money to get the logo, but doesn’t offer anything concrete in exchange; theoretically, if your product meets all of THX’s specifications, you could be THX-certifiable without actually being THX-certified and pass the savings along to your customers. A bigger issue is that THX’s specifications are based on a specific philosophy. On the audio side, the philosophy includes notions of how a speaker should be constructed (small satellites, big subwoofers, and a specific crossover type and crossover frequency), how soundtracks mixed for commercial theaters should be adapted for the home environment, and how rear speakers should be integrated into a system. Reasonable people at, say, a speaker manufacturer, could disagree on an aspect of the technical approach that THX certification demands, but because the THX logo is respected in the market, they may lose business by building things their way instead of THX’s methodology.

THX Certified Display testing includes the following:

  • Front of Screen (FOS) Testing
    • Luminance
    • Contrast
    • Color Gamut
    • Gamma
    • Uniformity
    • Max Resolution
  • Video Signal Processing Testing
    • Scaling
    • Deinterlacing
    • Motion/Video Conversion

I am 100% confident that there will be controversy over THX’s video specifications. I couldn’t tell you what specifically will cause hand wringing – or whether it will be a specification of omission: THX’s video certification program was been rightly villified several years back for certifying terrible letterbox transfers; the specs simply didn’t go far enough in that case.

Still, I believe that, on balance, THX is an incredibly positive force for home theater audio and video reproduction. If you assemble a THX-approved system, even from different vendors, you know that the individual products will perform to a certain set of specifications, and that they were designed to complement each other. I also appreciate the notion of a certification program in the first place. Sure, Vendor X has a good reputation, and Vendor Y has a powerful brand. But THX drives the entire industry, for better or worse, towards a unified A/V philosophy. Aside from buying every component in your system from a single brand — as if that were even possible (outside of Sony and Samsung) — THX assures a level of uniformity of purpose and performance in home theater products. I like that.

-avi

CEDIA Highlights, Part II Read More

CEDIA Highlights, Part I

To all the PR people trying to set up meetings with me at CEDIA this weekend: I’m not there. I just got back from CTIA before heading out again early next week, and CEDIA just didn’t make it onto the schedule this year.

Of course, I’m following the show remotely. So far, only a couple of announcements have really broken through the clutter, and they’re two projectors that offer clear value propositions:

  • Vplvw50_close_med_1 Sony’s 1080p VPL-VW50 SXRD front projector, which brings essentially the same technology from the $25,000 Qualia line (that then showed up in the $10,000 VPL-VW100 front projector, and then again in a line of Bravia rear projection TVs) down to $5,000. In the U.S., where big screen TVs have long been available (along with the floor space to put them) mid-priced projectors often sell well. Overseas, where a projector is replacing a big screen TV, not supplementing it, budget projectors tend to do better. Regardless, $3,000 – $5,000 is a sweet spot for pricing, and now performance follows. Sony can claim it uses unique technology for superior image quality, which fits nicely with its brand history (and just might be true. I personally prefer the slightly smoother picture from SXRD/D-ILA technologies compared to DLP or LCD).
  • Sc1011 At the opposite end of the price spectrum, if you’ve got hundreds of thousands of dollars to spend on a Bentley, you may want to consider a Runco Signature Cinema SC-1 instead (starting price: $250K. More if you want the 2.35:1 version). And a 40 foot screen for your home theater. While you might think there is no market for such ridiculously expensive toys, think again: when I last spoke to TI, they admitted that a fair number of professional DLP products aimed at commercial theaters end up in the homes of the super-wealthy film enthusiast. Or at least the super-wealthy conspicuous consumer who needs the absolute best of everything.

-avi

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Flexity PowerSquid Swims Its Way Into Apple Stores

Surge3000_cordOK, the press release [warning: PDF] is somewhat gratuitous, as the product itself was announced what seems like ages ago. But Flexity’s PowerSquid line is such an elegant solution to such an annoying problem that it’s worth plugging them again (sorry about the pun). Sure, some home theater components include standard narrow plugs, which fit nicely onto a surge protector, but as the digital/gadget quotient rises in home entertainment, so do the wall warts (those big brick things that you can’t fit onto a standard surge protector).

To be completely truthful, I haven’t even used the PowerSquid sample Flexity sent over in my home theater at all. At first it was upstairs in my home office, and then migrated from the floor to the desk itself, where it serves as a gadget recharging station. As I write this, its tentacles are connected to a set of Bluetooth headphones, a digital picture frame, an Internet tablet, a WiFi MP3 player, a musicphone, and a subnotebook. The subnotebook is literally the only one of the six devices with a "normal" plug; the MP3 player’s brick is a monsterously large rectangle, the digital picture frame’s plug looks like an oversized peanut, and the smartphone’s cord originates in a giant oval thing. Standard surge protectors – even the ones with extra spacing – can’t connect half of those things.

If Flexity is serious about the home theater market, they’ll move upscale with versions branded for "home theater," perhaps with power line conditioning. But, as it is, these are product samples the vendor is not getting back.

-avi

Update: Flexity responds:Surge3000_calamari_cord_1

Our product is actually conditioned for high end Home Theater systems, with the Calamari running our PureStream EMI/RFI filters that protect up to 58dB. While we certainly are not the fanciest home theater option, the PowerSquid is a solid choice that will cost a great deal less than many models from the competition.

That’s not quite the same thing as what Richard Gray’s Power Company, Monster, or even Belkin is promising, but I’ll grant Flexity that the Calamari should be sufficient in many home theaters assuming line conditioning is even needed in the first place. More importantly, a picture of the Calamari [just added, see above right] demonstrates why it should sell well in the Apple stores – it’s white!

Flexity PowerSquid Swims Its Way Into Apple Stores Read More

LIVEDigitally Reviews Gefen Switcher

Gefen_live_digitally_1 I always wondered how well Gefen’s line of switchers would work in the real world. Gefen used to make switch boxes for the broadcast world which began finding their way into HDTV households as connectivity formats increased without a commesurate number of inputs on TVs or receivers. Lately, some of Gefen’s products have been picked up by home theater distributors, and Jeremey Toeman over at LIVEDigitally gives a 4 x 1 unit (4 HDMI inputs, 1 DVI output) a strong review.

One side note: simple boxes that switch analog formats can be had for $29.99 at Radio Shack, so there’s often sticker shock when people see what looks like a simple product with a price tag 10x higher. Gefen’s 4 x 1 sells for $300, and while there are certainly healthy margins built into the price tag, it is not a simple mechanical device like that speaker selector box. For now, most of Gefen’s boxes have been sold to professionals (either in the broadcast industry or custom installers), but as its products move into retail, the company should spend a few dollars on packaging and POS (Point Of Sale) marketing materials extolling the virtues of passing along HDCP signals, bandwidth specs, and pretty pictures of the innards. Monster does this to great effect with their entire product line. Of course, the HDMI or DVI cables for each of the devices are also much more expensive than RCA video cables, too. Consumers can easily double the price of the Gefen switcher by the time they’re done setting up a system (and they thought they blew the budget on the big plasma TV…). HD connectivity can be pricey.

-avi

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Sonos Tries to Market “The Experience”

Sonos has built a flash version of its music controller for online demos. It’s neat, and was probably worth the investment it took to build because the UI (depicted below) is a key part of the Sonos value proposition.

Sonos_ui_2However, one of the more interesting pieces of feedback I received from my Sonos review was from people who wanted to know why Sonos was worth a price premium over simply sticking an iPod and a speaker dock in each room.

There are good answers to that question, but the experience is different, and that doesn’t come across in an answer – or a demo of the UI. The controller isn’t the experience. Having easily controlled music throughout your home is the experience, and, that may take an actual physical demonstration at someone’s home to generate the a-ha! moment Sonos needs.

-avi

Sonos Tries to Market “The Experience” Read More