DVD

Last month I pointed out that Gizmodo declared the HD-DVD wars over with Blu-Ray victorious due to better studio support.  This week, four major studios lined up behind HD-DVD.  With Sony and Columbia firmly behind Blu-Ray, this is shaping up to be an interesting format war.

Bill Hunt over at The Digital Bits suggests that a format war is better than the situation we had at the launch of DVD – where nobody other than Warner was promising to support the format.  He goes on to say that if hardware vendors provide universal players, actual format could be irrelevant. 

In the long run, sure, but what a waste!  Dueling marketing dollars, more expensive players, and consumer confusion mean slower uptake.  Plus, it’s possible that consumers simply tune out format wars at this point – as evidenced by DVD-A vs SACD (more on this later).

Michael Gartenberg over at JupiterResearch points out that first-to-market advantage is overrated – early adopters will buy whatever is available – and it’s the mainstream consumer you need to worry about.

True – and the existence of JVC’s tape-based D-Theater proves that the earliest adopters will do anything to advance the state of prerecorded HD – but I’d take this a step further: these formats have a lot to prove even without a format war. 

Nobody has shown me evidence that mass market consumers actually want higher resolution discs:

• Even if you have a really large and high quality display, well encoded anamorphic 480p DVDs are acceptable, and on anything less, HD doesn’t offer a dramatic improvement. 
• DVDs are now selling as impulse buys in supermarkets. Will consumers be willing to pay more for HD discs (to justify higher manufacturing and mastering costs)?
• Sure, some Star Wars fans will buy the Holy Trilogy again for the fifth time in higher resolution. But what about regular titles, and regular consumers?
• Will stores be willing to stock additional SKUs to accomodate HD discs in addition to regular DVDs? 
• Finally, will something else come along while consumers are waiting for the format wars to resolve themselves?  Even assuming that demand will materialize, how long is the window to ramp up mainstream HD-DVD/Blu-ray going to be open?  DVD-Audio and SACD were done in at least as much by the MP3/iPod distraction as anything else.  Wait too long, and you give broadband/hard drive solutions a chance, or perhaps Kaleidescape to become affordable.

-avi

Well, Gizmodo was wrong… Read More

Interesting analysis over at Gizmodo, particularly the charts highlighting market share for the studios. I think it’s premature to declare the format wars over well before any product actually reaches the US market – so many things could go wrong for either camp.

As I’ve written before (here and here, and here), a bigger issue is whether there’s much of a market for prerecorded HD content in the first place. Anamorphic DVDs cross the “good enough” threshold for most people – even on HDTVs. Star Wars on DVD – remastered yesterday, but shot in 1977 – looks spectacular on my 7’ screen, and most consumers watch on considerably smaller televisions. There’s concern about buyer fatigue (speaking of Star Wars, this is the fourth time I’ve bought it already), killing the DVD golden goose by introducing any format confusion, and pricing.

Ah, pricing. Yes, all the players are going to be backwards compatible (who cares about the technology – if a red laser DVD costs $29 at Wal-Mart, you can just it in any kind of player). But if the disc itself isn’t backwards compatible, you need to either have two separate SKUs – retailers hate that – or put two discs in the box – doubling the cost of media.

So will HD releases be more expensive? Will consumers pay extra to get both formats? If consumers won’t pay more for both discs, then studios will have to go the multiple SKU route. In that case, the HD format will be limited to a high end niche, and for titles big enough to get shelf space. That’s enough to get me excited about the format – I’m a sucker for anything that promises a noticeably better picture. It probably has a bit more appeal than the old videophile-only laserdisc (which never got out of low single-digit penetration), too, as DVD has considerably broadened the home theater audience. Even so, it is unlikely to be a mass market product or replace DVD as a format.

-avi

Is HD-DVD (the format) Already Dead? Read More